A re-evaluation of the Premier League: is the dynasty of the top six being threatened?
A Re-evaluation of the Premier League: is the dynasty of the top six being threatened?
The Premier League is entering its 25th year as the top tier of English football, and the vast majority of these seasons have been dominated by so-called ‘Top Six’.
Consisting of Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City, the Premier League title has seen very little competition from any other teams outside of this select group. Whilst only four of these six teams have had the pleasure of lifting the trophy, all six teams have been competitive in acquiring it season upon season. The added bonus of being a top six side is the pleasure of playing in European competitions. The top four teams playing in the Champions league whilst the other two contest in Europe’s subliminal tournament, the Europa League. The omnipresence of the top six in these competitions, as well as in the Premier league, suggests nothing short of a dynasty. However, is their reign as the top six teams in England coming to an end?
Over the last few seasons, results have shown a growing ‘underclass’ of premier league teams that are hungry for more. The likes of Leicester, Everton, West Ham and Wolves have been gathering momentum, and flirting with the possibility of European football for a while now. They have been closing the gap and licking at the heels of the historically most successful premier league teams; perhaps profiting from an innate complacency of that comes with success. Looking ahead to the 2019/20 premier league season, it could be argued that there has never been a better time - for teams like West Ham, Everton and Leicester – to take the leap and break the mould amongst the Premier league’s ‘best’. If the fabled top six are not careful they could have a mutiny on their hands, leading to a potential re-evaluation of the premier league altogether.
The Premier League could take a vastly different shape in 2019/20. The points gap - at the conclusion of the 18/19 campaign - between the top two sides (Liverpool and Manchester City) and the trailing four teams in the so-called ‘top six’ (26), was far larger than the gap between the same four and the teams that comprise the ‘rest’ of premier league (9). Moreover, with the quality of football that Guardiola’s Manchester City and Klopp’s Liverpool are producing is of a different level compared to the rest of the top six. City won the domestic treble and Liverpool won the champions league having reached the final for two years running. Both teams are far beyond the reaches of Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal. This causes me to think that the current categorisation of the premier league as having first, a ‘top six’ and second, the ‘rest’ is becoming far outdated.
From now on, the 'top six' should only be used in its historical context, because it no longer offers a fair reflection of the premier league in terms of quality on the pitch. Perhaps a new age is upon us where the top tier of English football paints a very different picture to how it has done on the past.
A new format of the Premier league is more fairly described as having: A top two containing Liverpool and Manchester City (the league will be contested by these two alone), followed by a declining group of four in Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United and Tottenham (too an extent), closely trailed by a hungry, growing group of teams in Leicester, West Ham, Everton and Wolves, and lastly, followed by the ‘rest’.
This is an unpopular opinion I am sure. However, the facts do point to an evident decline of the aforementioned second group (Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham (to a lesser extent) and the subsequent rise of teams in the third group (Everton, West Ham, Wolves and Leicester). This is coupled with the growing distance that Liverpool and City are putting between themselves and the rest of the league. The football they are producing is leaps and bounds ahead of any competition and has propelled them into a two-horse race. And, I do not see this changing any time soon.
Top Six – no longer: the decline of Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham.
Unfortunately, this does not make for nice reading for any Chelsea, United, Spurs or Arsenal fans. Sometimes the truth hurts.
Looking ahead to next season, all of these clubs should be concerned. Their squads are nowhere near good enough to challenge City or Liverpool for the title. Instead, they can expect to be scrapping it out, not so much with the ‘rest’ of the premier league but, with a distinct group of teams who have been waiting in the wings for the perfect opportunity.
Chelsea are heading into a season on the back of a transfer ban that has seen them sanctioned for breaching financial fair play law. The blues are unable to sign players for two transfer windows; rendering them impotent to invest in their squad through financial means. This is a huge cause for concern seeming as their star man, Eden Hazard has left for pastures new: to Real Madrid. Hazard was incremental for the blues last season and his numbers speak for themselves. The Belgian captain made the most assists, completed the most take-ons, created the most chances, won the most fouls, and the most duels - not just for Chelsea – but for the league as a whole. He is leaving a behind a club in decline and disrepute, with the club unable to replace him due to their transfer ban. The woes for Chelsea fans do not stop there, either. They have lost their manager, Mauricio Sarri, too Italian giants Juventus, who has hinted at taking playmaker Jorginho with him. The central midfielder provided the most passes into the final third (416), as well as winning the most possession (274) in the Premier League during 2018/19. Not the most auspicious timing it has to be said.
As the mist of uncertainty descends over Stamford bridge, a silver lining emerges in the potential appointment of club Legend, Frank Lampard, as the new boss. He is inexperienced but he knows the club set up well, and he is perhaps the best man to oversee the transfer ban that will force Chelsea to promote the wealth of youthful talent that they have in their ranks. However, Lampard’s appointment is not conductive of immediate success. Chelsea will need time to adjust, which creates a perfect opportunity for clubs such as Wolves, Leicester, Everton and West Ham, to put their foot in the door, and try to wrest a top six spot from the blues.
Manchester United are facing a similar crisis. They have looked a shadow of the title winning powerhouse that Sir Alex Ferguson produced, concomitantly, falling well behind their neighbours, Manchester City, and biggest rivals Liverpool. And, looking forward to next season, United are in no position to change things. They have an unproven, untested manager in Ole Gunnar Solskaier. He took over from José Mourinho in (month) when United were sitting in 6th position. They finished the season also in 6th. Hardly an improvement. He has minimal experience of managing at the top level. He was in charge when Cardiff got relegated in 2014, and prior to his appointment at United, he was managing Norwegian side (NAME). A resumé that shouldn’t fill United fans with much confidence. And, to add insult to injury, their star performer last season, Paul Pogba, looks all but set to leave Old Trafford this summer. The Frenchman admitted in an interview with Sky Sports, that he was looking for a “new challenge; somewhere else”. Pogba provided the most goals (13), assists (9) and shots on target (50) for United last season. He will need some replacing, and whoever that is will have some big shoes to fill. Solskaier has been somewhat busy with contract renewals over summer – Ashley Young, Juan Mata, Phil Jones, and Anthony Martial have all committed their futures to United; a deplorable list of players who were heavily berated at times last season . The board’s decision to renew so many contracts does not suggest that United are willing to break the bank this summer. Although, the additions of Aaroon Wan- Bissaka and Daniel James would suggest otherwise.
Unai Emery’s first season as Arsenal manager was no less typical than the final seasons under the guidance of Arsene Wenger. At times, Arsenal produced some wonderful football in 18/19. One only has to think of the goals against Leicester or Fulham to see what Arsenal are capable of doing. However, their main hinderance throughout the campaign was their inconsistency against lower-league opposition. The gunner, once again, stumbled against the Premier League’s ‘less established’ teams, such as Wolves, Brighton and (another bottom-half team). Poor results at the back end of the season saw Emery’s side drop out of the Champions League places to finish 5th. They did have a second chance to secure in next seasons Champions League, however, they fell short once again; suffering a humiliating 4-0 in the final at the hands of their London rivals, Chelsea. With the greater competition anticipated in 19/20, Arsenal cannot rely on second chances.
Tottenham have less to be worried about. They have got a brand new stadium to look forward to playing in. A widely respected manger and a squad that has, consistently, secured top 6 status, season upon season. And, having reached the champions league final and finished 4th in 18/19 they should not be too worried. Alternatively, and much to the ire of Spurs fans, the club is under ambitious in the transfer market. However, reports suggest that a club record bid has been made to sign Ndombele from French Side Lyon. Sky Sports believe that Spurs are willing to part with as much as £65 million to get their man. His arrival could be the green light in Christian Eriksen’s much anticipated move to Real Madrid. The Danish playmaker has been linked with Los Blancos on a number of occasions over the last few seasons.
The decline of the top six is simultaneous with a growing ‘underclass’ of teams in Leicester, West Ham, Wolves and Everton, leading many to believe that the premier league is as open as it has been since its inception 25 years ago.
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